Mammon's Blog

My Little Forecast #2

mammonnomore — Wed, 31 Mar 2010 15:41:48 +0000

Yesterday’s forecast seemed to come out to the letter. We will try to give a new forecast for tomorrow here. There are some factors to be considered.
Friday is closed in Europe, but not in US. In this case thursday will be the last day before the weekend for AEX/DAX.

As the US closes lower, we will open lower or the same. DJIA also made a new low end-of-day. Because thursday would be a non-eventful day, we should continue the downtrend that started on tuesday, and has been losing momentum ever since.

We have hourly bullish divergence on AEX, but the trigger is around the zero line, and has not been triggered. It may just bounce… (see image)

The daily momentum is going down along with price and may decide to bounce off the zero line in the near future.

(technical bias)

We may be in for the third paw which is a rather big one. After this the way to the bird is open. We may assume 345-346 is the high of the paw and has indeed been touched the last two days. The new low should be between 334-339, the latest lows

(general pattern bias)

MOM preceeds

mammonnomore — Wed, 31 Mar 2010 12:37:55 +0000

Momentum preceeds marginal higher prices. We saw this today on a range basis.

As prices tend to be the primary and only concern for the average investor

My Little Forecast

mammonnomore — Wed, 31 Mar 2010 02:57:05 +0000

After hours of careful deliberation and thinking about the markets from all viewpoints I know this is my forecast for Wednesday, March 31:

We open higher, test the highs, then momentum will drop and we will go lower onesmore till end-of-day

(General pattern bias)

We have not seen the set-up for a buy on the 15/30 min momentum chart for AEX/DAX. The momentum pattern from yesterday could hold and we could head even lower. Until we see momentum improve we may still be in a movement from yesterday. (open=close, low momentum). We have to sell until momentum turns

(technical bias)

The feet of the bird/ shortterm technicals

mammonnomore — Wed, 31 Mar 2010 02:37:10 +0000

Short Term technicals (MOM) have set-up sell signals. The feet of the bird imply range trading 3 times. /346

However longer term projactions are best when bought on a dip.

One has to watch out not to sell on the lowest point.

DAX & SnP MOM

mammonnomore — Tue, 30 Mar 2010 22:12:35 +0000

Momentum seems gone on most of the time frames and even confirming sell signals on some. It would seem prudent to sell after the open if or when momentum starts dropping again. As long as mom is ok, there might be up chances. Otherwise technicals look without fuel to go up.

The longer term GENERAL PATTERN wing may still be in effect and the reason why we do not close lower on a daily basis. It seems that while the bottom holds arrows are up. we will try and look at today’s DAX chart to see if the bottom and close seem high enough for a bottom.

It stands the test of time that a general pattern overrules the momentum indicators for the longer term. We cannot know when this longer term will take effect, however.

Actually,we should have a low leverage long with a far stoploss

What to do with big profits

mammonnomore — Tue, 30 Mar 2010 03:24:16 +0000

You do not have to close your position but, unless there is a very shortterm setup, it must be prudent to salamishave a little off the top.

Mammon’s Rules

mammonnomore — Tue, 30 Mar 2010 02:08:50 +0000

Mammon’s 10 commandments for multiplying money

The first commandment

Here we are again with the rules of the god himself , in this 10-part series.
We have already been priviliged to two of the ten commandments. But today’s commandment is a very special one, and says a lot about day, week and month trends. As such it is Mammon’s first commandment. As a rule, it is more important then other rules because it encompasses the entire market ecosystem.

Commandment # 1

It is more important to determine the opinions of average

investors than those of professional traders.

The market always follows the path of least resistance. This means the market is there to provide a place where average investors behaviour leads to money being lost, so more deals can be made, so more money can be lost. A pushmodel from the markets…

Master times for April

mammonnomore — Tue, 30 Mar 2010 01:30:45 +0000

If March 25 was a significant date then the master times for April are 7,11,16,21

From the January 5 high we get the dates April 6, 16, 26

From the February 7 low we get the dates April 4, 12, 20,29

The High Tide for 2010 on 26 March, the crossing of the highs on 25th and the master time cluster around March 28th, may all signify a new bottom in the heart of the bird, or a new high blow-out high in a long eurozone white wine.

Tomorrow we may learn the answer.

Organization

mammonnomore — Tue, 30 Mar 2010 01:15:35 +0000

Disorganized people may benefit from organizing their investing. Common tools are a diary and spreadsheets.

a 40000€ loss

mammonnomore — Tue, 30 Mar 2010 00:32:15 +0000

…take or leave some. As accumulated track records go, this must be a truthful one. In this particalur case there must be a something wrong with the system of investing, if there is any.